Chevron is a global energy company with significant business activities in the following countries: Angola, Argentina, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Canada, Chad, China, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Denmark, France, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, the Partitioned Neutral Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the Philippines, Qatar, Republic of the Congo, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Kingdom, the United States, Venezuela, and Vietnam.
Earnings of the company depend largely on the profitability of its upstream (exploration and production) and downstream (refining, marketing and transportation) business segments. The single biggest factor that affects the results of operations for both segments is movement in the price of crude oil. In the downstream business, crude oil is the largest cost component of refined products. The overall trend in earnings is typically less affected by results from the company's chemicals business and other activities and investments. Earnings for the company in any period may also be influenced by events or transactions that are infrequent and/or unusual in nature.
In recent years and through most of 2008, Chevron and the oil and gas industry at large experienced an increase in certain costs that exceeded the general trend of inflation in many areas of the world. This increase in costs affected the company's operating expenses and capital programs for all business segments, but particularly for upstream. These cost pressures began to soften somewhat in late 2008. As the price of crude oil dropped precipitously from a record high in midyear, the demand for some goods and services in the industry began to slacken. This cost trend is expected to continue during 2009 if crude-oil prices do not significantly rebound. (Refer to the "Upstream" section below for a discussion of the trend in crude-oil prices.)
The company's operations, especially upstream, can also be affected by changing economic, regulatory and political environments in the various countries in which it operates, including the United States. Civil unrest, acts of violence or strained relations between a government and the company or other governments may impact the company's operations or investments. Those developments have at times significantly affected the company's operations and results and are carefully considered by management when evaluating the level of current and future activity in such countries.
To sustain its long-term competitive position in the upstream business, the company must develop and replenish an inventory of projects that offer adequate financial returns for the investment required. Identifying promising areas for exploration, acquiring the necessary rights to explore for and to produce crude oil and natural gas, drilling successfully, and handling the many technical and operational details in a safe and cost-effective manner are all important factors in this effort. Projects often require long lead times and large capital commitments. From time to time, certain governments have sought to renegotiate contracts or impose additional costs on the company. Governments may attempt to do so in the future. The company will continue to monitor these developments, take them into account in evaluating future investment opportunities, and otherwise seek to mitigate any risks to the company's current operations or future prospects.
The company also continually evaluates opportunities to dispose of assets that are not expected to provide sufficient long-term value or to acquire assets or operations complementary to its asset base to help augment the company's growth. Refer to "Results of Operations" for discussions of net gains on asset sales during 2008. Asset dispositions and restructurings may occur in future periods and could result in significant gains or losses.
The company has been closely monitoring the ongoing uncertainty in financial and credit markets, the rapid decline in crude-oil prices that began in the second half of 2008, and the general contraction of worldwide economic activity. Management is taking these developments into account in the conduct of daily operations and for business planning. The company remains confident of its underlying financial strength to deal with potential problems presented in this environment.
Comments related to earnings trends for the company's major business areas are as follows:
Upstream
Earnings for the upstream segment are closely aligned with industry price levels for crude oil and natural gas. Crude-oil and natural-gas prices are subject to external 
factors over which the company has no control, including product demand connected with global economic conditions, industry inventory levels, production quotas imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), weather-related damage and disruptions, competing fuel prices, and regional supply interruptions or fears thereof that may be caused by military conflicts, civil unrest or political uncertainty. Moreover, any of these factors could also inhibit the company's production capacity in an affected region. The company monitors developments closely in the countries in which it operates and holds investments, and attempts to manage risks in operating its facilities and business.
Price levels for capital and exploratory costs and operating expenses associated with the efficient production of crude oil and natural gas can also be subject to external factors beyond the company's control. External factors include not only the general level of inflation but also prices charged by the industry's material- and service-providers, which can be affected by the volatility of the industry's own supply and demand conditions for such materials and services. Capital and exploratory expenditures and operating expenses also can be affected by damages to production facilities caused by severe weather or civil unrest.
Industry price levels for crude oil were volatile during 2008. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, a benchmark crude, started 2008 at $96 per barrel and peaked at $147 in early July. At the end of the year, the WTI price had fallen to $45 per barrel. As of mid-February 2009, the WTI price was $38 per barrel. The collapse in price during the second half of 2008 was largely driven by a decline in the demand for crude oil that was associated with a significant weakening in world economies. The WTI price averaged $100 per barrel for the full-year 2008, compared with $72 in 2007.
As in 2007, a wide differential in prices existed in 2008 between high-quality (i.e., high-gravity, low-sulfur) crude oils and those of lower quality (i.e., low-gravity, high-sulfur crude). The relatively lower price for the high-sulfur crudes has been associated with an ample supply and relatively lower demand due to the limited number of refineries that are able to process this lower-quality feedstock into light products (i.e., motor gasoline, jet fuel, aviation gasoline and diesel fuel). Chevron produces or shares in the production of heavy crude oil in California, Chad, Indonesia, the Partitioned Neutral Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Venezuela and certain fields in Angola, China and the United Kingdom North Sea. (Refer to "Selected Operating Data" for the company's average U.S. and international crude oil realizations.)
In contrast to price movements in the global market for crude oil, price changes for natural gas in many regional markets are more closely aligned with supply-and-demand conditions in those markets. In the United States during 2008, benchmark prices at Henry Hub averaged about $9 per thousand cubic feet (MCF), compared with about $7 in 2007. At December 31, 2008, and as of mid-February 2009, the Henry Hub price was about $5.60 and $4.70 per MCF, respectively. Fluctuations in the price for natural gas in the United States are closely associated with the volumes produced in North America and the inventory in underground storage relative to customer demand. U.S. natural gas prices are also typically higher during the winter period when demand for heating is greatest.
Certain other regions of the world in which the company operates have different supply, demand and regulatory circumstances, typically resulting in lower average sales prices for the company's production of natural gas. (Refer to "Selected Operating Data" for the company's average natural gas realizations for the U.S. and international regions.) Additionally, excess-supply conditions that exist in certain parts of the world cannot easily serve to mitigate the relatively higher-price conditions in the United States and other markets because of the lack of infrastructure to transport and receive liquefied natural gas.
To help address this regional imbalance between supply and demand for natural gas, Chevron continues to invest in long-term projects in areas of excess supply to install infrastructure to produce and liquefy natural gas for transport by tanker, along with investments and commitments to regasify the product in markets where demand is strong and supplies are not as plentiful. Due to the significance of the overall investment in these long-term projects, the natural gas sales prices in the areas of excess supply (before the natural gas is transferred to a processing facility) are expected to remain below sales prices for natural gas that is produced much nearer to areas of high demand and can be transported in existing natural gas pipeline networks (as in the United States or Thailand).
Besides the impact of the fluctuation in price for crude oil and natural gas, the longer-term trend in earnings for the upstream segment is also a function of other factors, including the company's ability to find or acquire and efficiently produce crude oil and natural gas, changes in fiscal terms of contracts, changes in tax rates on income, and the cost of goods and services.
Chevron's worldwide net oil-equivalent production in 2008, including volumes produced from oil sands, averaged 2.53 million barrels per day, a decline of about 90,000 barrels per day from 2007 due mainly to the impact of higher prices on volumes recovered under certain production-sharing and variable-royalty agreements outside the United States and damage to production facilities in September 2008 caused by hurricanes Gustav and Ike in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. (Refer to the discussion of U.S. upstream production trends in "Results of Operations." Refer also to "Selected Operating Data" for a listing of production volumes for each of the three years ending December 31, 2008.)
The company estimates that oil-equivalent production in 2009 will average approximately 2.63 million barrels per day. This estimate is subject to many uncertainties, including quotas that may be imposed by OPEC, price effects on production volumes calculated under cost-recovery and variable-royalty provisions of certain contracts, changes in fiscal terms or restrictions on the scope of company operations, delays in project startups, fluctuations in demand for natural gas in various markets, weather conditions that may shut in production, civil unrest, changing geopolitics, or other disruptions to operations. Future production levels also are affected by the size and number of economic investment opportunities and, for new large-scale projects, the time lag between initial exploration and the beginning of production. Most of Chevron's upstream investment is currently being made outside the United States. Investments in upstream projects generally are made well in advance of the start of the associated production of crude oil and natural gas.
Approximately 20 percent of the company's net oil-equivalent production in 2008 occurred in the OPEC-member countries of Angola, Nigeria and Venezuela and in the Partitioned Neutral Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. (This production statistic excludes volumes produced in Indonesia, which relinquished its OPEC membership at the end of 2008.) At a meeting on December 17, 2008, OPEC announced a reduction of 4.2 million barrels per day, or 14 percent, from actual September 2008 production of 29 million barrels per day. The reduction became effective January 1, 2009. OPEC quotas did not significantly affect Chevron's production level in 2007 or in 2008. The company's current and future production levels could be affected by the cutbacks announced by OPEC in December 2008.
Refer to "Results of Operations" for additional discussion of the company's upstream operations.
Downstream
Earnings for the downstream segment are closely tied to margins on the refining and marketing of products that include gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, fuel oil and feedstocks for chemical manufacturing. Industry margins are sometimes volatile and can be affected by the global and regional supply-and-demand balance for refined products and by changes in the price of crude oil used for refinery feedstock. Industry margins can also be influenced by refined-product inventory levels, geopolitical events, refinery maintenance programs and disruptions at refineries resulting from unplanned outages that may be due to severe weather or other operational events.
Other factors affecting profitability for downstream operations include the reliability and efficiency of the company's refining and marketing network, the effectiveness of the crude-oil and product-supply functions and the economic returns on invested capital. Profitability can also be affected by the volatility of tanker-charter rates for the company's shipping operations, which are driven by the industry's demand for crude oil and product tankers. Other factors beyond the company's control include the general level of inflation and energy costs to operate the company's refinery and distribution network.
The company's most significant marketing areas are the West Coast of North America, the U.S. Gulf Coast, Latin America, Asia, southern Africa and the United Kingdom. Chevron operates or has ownership interests in refineries in each of these areas except Latin America. Downstream earnings, especially in the United States, were weak from mid-2007 through mid-2008 due mainly to increasing prices of crude oil used in the refining process that were not always fully recovered through sales prices of refined products. Margins significantly improved in the second half of 2008 as the price of crude oil declined. As part of its downstream strategy to focus on areas of market strength, the company announced plans to sell marketing businesses in several countries. Refer to the discussion in "Operating Developments."
Industry margins in the future may be volatile and are influenced by changes in the price of crude oil used for refinery feedstock and by changes in the supply and demand for crude oil and refined products. The industry supply and demand balance can be affected by disruptions at refineries resulting from maintenance programs and unplanned outages, including weather-related disruptions; refined-product inventory levels; and geopolitical events.
Refer to "Results of Operations" for additional discussion of the company's downstream operations.
Chemicals
Earnings in the petrochemicals business are closely tied to global chemical demand, industry inventory levels and plant capacity utilization. Feedstock and fuel costs, which tend to follow crude oil and natural gas price movements, also influence earnings in this segment.
Refer to "Results of Operations" for additional discussion of chemicals earnings.